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1996-03-04
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Document 0702
DOCN M9640702
TI Use of AIDS surveillance data to describe subepidemic dynamics.
DT 9604
AU Cantoni M; Cozzi Lepri A; Grossi P; Pezzotti P; Rezza G; Verdecchia A;
Laboratory of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Istituto Superiore; di
Sanita, Rome, Italy.
SO Int J Epidemiol. 1995 Aug;24(4):804-12. Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE
MED/96022686
AB BACKGROUND. Official reports on AIDS surveillance mainly consist of
absolute numbers of AIDS cases or cumulative incidence rates. More
detailed analyses focusing on the clusters of subepidemics within Italy
seemed necessary for a better understanding and more accurate
description of the epidemic. METHODS. Age-specific AIDS incidence rates
were calculated with reference to resident population by sex, calendar
time and geographical area. Age-standardized incidence rates, with the
Italian resident population in 1990 as standard, were used to present
time trends and geographical distributions. All analyses were repeated
for injecting drug users, homosexual/bisexual men, heterosexual contacts
and individuals with other or undetermined risk factors. RESULTS. Annual
incidence rates for AIDS in Italy increased over the study period. The
highest rates were observed in the North and in Sardinia, while Southern
regions showed generally lower rates. This heterogeneity was more
evident when examining small geographical areas (i.e. provinces).
Epidemics in some of the smaller provinces, such as Imperia and Livorno
(Northwestern port towns), were shown to be important in that they
greatly affect AIDS incidence rates in the regions in which they are
located. CONCLUSIONS. According to our analysis, the crude presentation
of data from the Italian AIDS Registry is not adequate for understanding
the national spread of the AIDS epidemic in terms of several local
subepidemics, which may differ by size, temporal trend, and risk group
composition. Classifying cases according to their place of residence,
which we considered as a good proxy of the place of life, was
fundamental for correctly locating these subepidemics. Furthermore, the
use of age-standardized rates allowed for unbiased comparisons between
regions whose population may have a different age structure and
dynamics.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION Adult
Age Distribution Disease Outbreaks/*STATISTICS & NUMER DATA Female
Geography Human Incidence Italy/EPIDEMIOLOGY Male Middle Age
Population Surveillance Registries Risk Factors Sex Behavior
Substance Abuse, Intravenous/COMPLICATIONS Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Time Factors JOURNAL ARTICLE
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).